2024 Industry Forecast: Back to Business as Usual?
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January 8, 2024 | By Karyn Hodgson
With the pandemic and supply chain issues both mostly in the rear-view mirror, security dealers and integrators are returning to “normal” and focusing the more typical challenges such as the economy, increasing sales, competing effectively and generating more RMR.
The 2024 SDM Industry Forecast Study (a report published every year since 1982), in addition to the opinions of an industry panel made up of four security dealer and integrator companies of varying sizes and geographic locations, shows a group of industry professionals looking at a more familiar landscape than the past few pandemic and post-pandemic years. While still concerned about what the economy may or may not do in 2024, they seem confident in their ability to weather that as the security industry has many times before.
Respondents to this year’s Industry Forecast, published in January but conducted in November 2023, are realistic about 2024, with predicted expectations changing little from the past year. This year’s report has 58 percent of respondents expecting an increase, with 35 percent predicting revenues will stay the same and 7 percent predicting a decrease, essentially unchanged from last year’s report.
Justin Stearns, vice president of Chimera Integrations, says 2022 and 2023 were both great years for his company, with 42 percent growth over last year.
While the latter two companies are likely on the upper end of growth for most companies, the majority of respondents to this year’s Industry Forecast — illustrated in the graphs here and on SDM’s website at SDMmag.com/annual-security-industry-forecast — reported growth at similar levels to 2022. In this year’s survey, the predictions for revenue changes in 2024 are nearly identical to those of last year, showing that they don’t anticipate any wild cards.
Perhaps this is in part a reflection of consistency over the past few years. As was the case last year, those surveyed for the Industry Forecast reported very similar numbers to last year when asked about both revenue and RMR. Their total annual revenue increased by an average of 18 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the previous year. RMR grew at exactly the same rate as the previous year (73 percent); and the growth of 20 percent was also 1 percentage point higher than the 2023 report.
